An interviewer says of an applicant: 'He is quiet, careful with his papers and fond of keeping records. He is therefore far likelier to be a trained record clerk than a shop assistant.' The interviewer's reasoning is most open to criticism because it

Likeness to a type is only half of what a judgement of likelihood needs; the other half is how many people of each kind there are to be met with. If shop assistants outnumber record clerks fifty to one, then even if quiet and careful men are far commoner among clerks, most quiet and careful men in the town will still be shop assistants. The applicant's honesty is not what the interviewer is reasoning from; the possibility of a third occupation does not touch which of the two named is likelier; and the interviewer never says these are the only two, he only sets one against the other.