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Head of a driving school: Anybody who fails the licence test twice will never make a safe driver. In thirty years not one of the trainees I have seen fail twice has turned out well. Transport inspector: Every trainee you have seen fail twice is a trainee who came back to you for more classes. A man who failed twice, went elsewhere and then drove safely for twenty years would never have crossed your path at all. The inspector's reply works by

Competition practiceLogical / Critical
  • Aproducing a particular driver whose case the head's rule cannot cover
  • Bshowing that the head's rule, if accepted, leads to a result the head himself would reject
  • Cquestioning whether the head has counted his trainees accurately over thirty years
  • Darguing that the head's evidence is drawn from a body of cases that could not have contained the ones which would tell against him

Step-by-Step Solution

The head's thirty years cover only those who returned to him, and the very drivers who would refute him — twice-failed men who went away and did well — are the ones who never return. His evidence is therefore incapable of turning up a counter-case, whatever the truth may be. The inspector names no actual driver, so no counter-case is produced; he draws out no unwelcome consequence of the rule; and he does not dispute the head's arithmetic, only the pool it was drawn from.
Answer: D) arguing that the head's evidence is drawn from a body of cases that could not have contained the ones which would tell against him

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