A fisheries association's bulletin states: 'Every one of the boat crews that came through last October's cyclone tells us it rode the storm out by turning the bow into the wind and holding it there. Turning the bow into the wind is therefore the safe course in a cyclone.' The bulletin's reasoning is most open to criticism because it

The bulletin questions the survivors and none but the survivors, and the answer it wants — that the practice sometimes fails — could only come from crews who are not there to give it. Evidence gathered in a way that shuts out every possible refutation proves nothing at all. Honesty is not in doubt, since the crews are describing what they did; the number at sea would matter only if the trouble were too few cases, and it is not; and the bulletin generalises about a practice in a storm, not about the habits of one association.